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Euro lifts head after knockout

The EURUSD pair rose 0.46%, to 1.1371 on Thursday, November 18. The dollar started to weaken during the Asian trading session. The kiwi dollar topped the leaderboard after inflation data came out in New Zealand. During the North American session, the DXY index continued to retreat against the backdrop of declining yields on 10-year USTs.

Todays macro agenda (GMT+3)

·         10:00 Germany: PPI (October)

·         10:00 UK: retail sales (October), public sector net borrowing (October)

·         11:00 EU: ECB President Christine Lagarde speech

·         12:00 EU: Eurozone balance of payments (September)

·         15:00 UK: BoE chief economist Huw Pill speech

·         16:00 Germany: Bundesbank Jens Weidman

·         16:30 Canada: retail sales (September)

·         18:45 US: FOMC member Christopher Waller speech

·         20:15 US: FOMC member Richard Clarida speech

·         21:00 EU: ECB President Christine Lagarde speech

Current outlook

By the time of writing, major currencies were showing mixed performance. At the outset of the Asian session, all currencies were trading in the red. Conversely, the aussie dollar, the Canadian dollar, and sterling saw green on the green. Today’s economic calendar is a blank slate, so FX market participants will remain focused on speeches by Central Bank representatives and the dynamics of US and European sovereign bond yields.

ECB President Christine Lagarde is scheduled to deliver two speeches today. Given that she has been speaking every day, her comments are unlikely to have an impact on the market.

Technical analysis

As of writing, the single currency was trading at 1.1326. Price action corrected by 20 pips and buyers look set to continue the rebound up to 1.1386. On Thursday, the euro recovered on the back of gains in the EURGBP pair. This was more of a technical pullback than a fundamental decline. The EURGBP cross is targeting 0.8450. If the correction gains momentum, the euro will move higher against the US dollar.

As for the DXY index futures, sellers have their sights set on the 95.43 mark. The UST10Y yield has been hovering at 1.59% for several hours. Major pairs look poised to continue the upward trend.

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